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19 May 2025,05:57

Daily Market Analysis

Crude Oil Flatlines as Investors Monitor Iran Talks

19 May 2025, 05:57

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Key Takeaways:

*Oil prices consolidate as markets await clarity on US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

*Geopolitical risks rise following Russia’s seizure of a Greek-owned tanker linked to Estonia.

*US rig count drops, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic supply growth.

*Economic headwinds and weak US data dampen oil demand outlook.

Crude oil prices held steady as investors exercised caution ahead of further developments in the Iran-US nuclear talks. Market sentiment was shaken after US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff asserted that any agreement must compel Iran to cease uranium enrichment—a stance that provoked a sharp rebuttal from Tehran. The lack of diplomatic progress leaves the outlook for Iranian oil exports uncertain, keeping supply forecasts murky.

Heightened geopolitical tensions added to the cautious sentiment. Russia’s recent detention of a Greek-owned oil tanker departing from Estonia has raised alarm over potential disruptions in Baltic Sea oil transport routes. While the immediate supply impact is limited, the situation adds a geopolitical premium to oil prices.

On the domestic front, the US rig count fell by one to 473, the lowest since January, per Baker Hughes data. The decline suggests continued capital discipline among shale producers, possibly restricting future output and contributing to a tighter supply scenario.

Despite these supportive supply-side developments, oil’s upside remains limited. Weak US economic data, combined with persistent concerns over global demand, has curtailed bullish momentum. Ongoing uncertainty in trade dynamics and macroeconomic conditions is weighing on investor sentiment and demand forecasts.

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, H1

Crude oil is testing resistance at $61.90, but momentum appears to be stalling. The MACD shows a bearish crossover (death cross), reflecting a loss of upward strength. The RSI has pulled back from overbought levels to 53, indicating a potential short-term correction.

A break above $61.90 could open the door for a rally toward the next resistance at $63.70.
If resistance holds, we may see a retreat to support at $60.00, with deeper consolidation possible around $57.55.

Resistance Levels: 61.90, 63.70

Support Levels: 60.00, 57.55

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